Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 179.735172 218.114502 265.712014 330.191396 417.040538 5.326857e+02 7.032147e+02
2025-04-06 137.393980 182.153051 244.989468 343.454559 501.660605 7.618495e+02 1.262894e+03
2025-04-13 109.899473 154.046943 221.207169 337.501480 550.190678 9.642884e+02 1.977511e+03
2025-04-20 98.983383 145.878873 222.691667 369.125527 674.752991 1.391485e+03 3.753817e+03
2025-04-27 90.160864 138.406346 222.427705 396.486916 806.366794 1.962122e+03 7.314677e+03
2025-05-04 82.459093 130.918478 219.773556 417.655133 938.050868 2.699600e+03 1.482979e+04
2025-05-11 75.389286 123.055970 214.297371 430.543020 1058.720637 3.599340e+03 3.149161e+04
2025-05-18 68.773809 114.815566 206.122147 434.207301 1157.398502 4.620311e+03 7.052283e+04
2025-05-25 62.351652 105.919769 194.737905 426.094160 1214.552859 5.597088e+03 1.606582e+05
2025-06-01 56.602939 97.527967 182.872724 413.108456 1248.081771 6.568742e+03 4.043528e+05
2025-06-08 51.646755 90.079645 171.816042 399.204855 1271.350597 7.602772e+03 1.290814e+06
2025-06-15 50.766231 90.758441 179.296980 441.965471 1579.743816 1.285447e+04 1.088156e+13
2025-06-22 47.649075 86.545136 174.927185 448.559337 1738.219990 1.803456e+04 NaN
2025-06-29 45.480558 84.098350 174.492341 468.609496 2004.231857 2.906868e+04 NaN
2025-07-06 42.281654 79.003854 166.474235 459.667625 2090.821141 3.835634e+04 NaN
2025-07-13 41.634707 79.508820 173.100532 507.521907 2653.491276 9.136188e+04 NaN
2025-07-20 40.677078 79.168547 177.416949 549.396491 3287.618179 2.521546e+05 NaN
2025-07-27 39.428090 77.980120 179.145551 582.082998 3950.716760 8.614439e+05 NaN
2025-08-03 37.899456 75.934729 178.018899 602.104536 4564.905989 4.063867e+06 NaN
2025-08-10 36.139138 73.128107 174.139278 607.813526 5045.628037 3.493380e+07 NaN
2025-08-17 34.114379 69.466413 167.081102 595.182942 5249.761820 8.560204e+08 NaN
2025-08-24 32.103823 65.665664 159.072250 575.041400 5304.173570 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 30.239125 62.079920 151.276216 553.579462 5303.162048 NaN NaN